The National Retail Federation (NRF) has warned that President Donald Trump’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners will lead to higher consumer prices and harm local economies, especially small businesses.
“More tariffs equal more anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and consumers,” said David French, NRF’s Executive Vice President of Government Relations. “While leaders in Washington may not care about higher prices, hardworking American families do.”
The NRF, which represents an industry supporting 55 million U.S. jobs and contributing $5.3 trillion to GDP, stressed that the tariffs will disproportionately impact small retailers and local communities. French cited a recent poll showing 88% of voters see small businesses as vital to their economies.
“Tariffs are a tax paid by the U.S. importer that will be passed along to the end consumer,” he said, urging the administration to avoid abrupt implementation and allow businesses time to adapt.
NRF President Matthew Shay said retail sales are still expected to grow by 2.7% to 3.7% in 2025, reaching up to $5.48 trillion. However, he noted that ongoing policy uncertainty, including tariffs, is dampening consumer and business confidence.
Despite projected online sales growth of up to 9%, GDP growth is expected to slow to below 2% in 2025 from 2.8% last year, according to the NRF.
“Fundamentals remain solid,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, “but policy moves could shake that stability.”
