Bangladesh’s inflation is forecast to ease to 8.0 percent in the 2025–2026 fiscal year, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said in its latest outlook, citing favorable weather, declining global oil prices, and stricter fiscal and monetary policies.
Despite these projections, the bank has cautioned that inflationary pressures remain persistent, driven by structural weaknesses. These include regulatory inefficiencies, limited competition in wholesale markets, inadequate market information, supply bottlenecks, and a depreciating local currency.
Bangladesh has implemented several measures to contain inflation, including monetary tightening and agricultural policy interventions. Yet, inflation remained elevated in the first half of FY2025.
Although a marginal decline was observed—falling to 9.9 percent in January 2025 from 10.9 percent in December 2024—the average for the current fiscal year is expected to stay in double digits.
ADB noted that a gradual easing of global commodity and fuel prices could help reduce inflationary pressure in the remaining months of FY2025. However, sustained improvement hinges on structural reforms and better policy execution.
In its January–June 2025 Monetary Policy Statement, the Bangladesh Bank reaffirmed its commitment to a tight monetary stance aimed at curbing inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and rebuilding foreign currency reserves. It also targets reducing the volume of nonperforming loans in the banking sector.
The central bank expects inflation to moderate to between 7.0 and 8.0 percent by the end of June 2025.
